For a decade or two, I worked in, and lived and breathed, financial markets. What I learnt was that history might look a bit different each cycle around, but the lessons essentially repeat themselves.

As a result, I spent some time this weekend getting out my trusty “History of Wall Street” book , as I wanted to remind myself what happened economically in the oil crises of the 1970s. I have attached a couple of paragraphs below if you are interested.

I will write a longer newsletter on this later in the week but for now:

If this oil crisis does not pass quickly, (personally and unfortunately I dont think it will, but I could be wrong), it is extremely likely we will get a spike in inflation, and we will get higher interest rates for a sustained period.

So what are you going to do about it?

1. Lock in a % of your mortgage now at a fixed rate.

Lets say variable home loans are around 5.64% now.

2 year fixed is around 5.84%, slightly higher. 3 years are also very similar.

I believe it prudent, even though it is slightly higher than your current variable rate, to lock in a percentage of your mortgage today at this fixed rate.

I also believe the current fixed rates are going to be going higher again soon as the banks generally take a bit of time (days and weeks) to catch up with higher fixed rates.

If you are wrong, and in the unlikely event interest rates do in fact go down, I dont believe over 2-3 years you will be too out of pocket, if any.

Its all about managing risk in the face of changing facts.

Isnt it amazing how the interest rate environment has changed in 4 months.

2. Buy some oil stocks

(I was a stockbroker and financial planner for many years, its hard to let go a lifetime of being a student of the markets).

Talk to me about this some more if you like and I will point you in the right direction.

We also had a saying in financial markets “If you are going to panic, panic early”. We dont recommend you panic, but we do recommend you be a realist and manage your risk.

Have a great week, try to get outside and not watch too much news.

If you have received this newsletter and you dont have your mortgage with me, call me anyway, I will always try to help you regardless

Look forward to your email at [email protected] or call me 0403397060

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That’s it for this week.

Keep showing up and keep cheering each other on — life is better when we support each other.

Reggie and the Thunderbolt Team